Sunday, September 03, 2006

Fearless college football predictions



With the first full day of college football behind us, I'm ready to make my fearless predictions. Yeah, yeah, so what if I'm a few weeks behind the rest of the analyists. I like to think I'm the smart one who actually waits until the teams play a down before giving my rankings.

Seriously, think of how dumb Lee Corso must feel right now. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of watching Corso Saturday mornings on College Gameday on ESPN. But his prediction of Cal winning the national title is all but over since the mighty Golden Bears got tamed by Tennessee, 35-18.

Face it, it's next to impossible to seriously rank teams before they've snapped the ball. We can all posture with our college football knowledge and compare what each team has returning from the year before. But ranking a team without having a chance to see the chemistry, the flow, or the freshman production is simply unfair to the teams.

So without further adu, here are my fearless predictions. I'll start with my top 25. Then I'll tell you who I think will play for a national title in January at the Fiesta Bowl. And for the record, no I didn't pick Cal. I've got two midwestern teams doing battle in the desert for college football's top crown. It's a rematch...but I'll get to that.

No. 1 - Ohio State
No. 2 - Notre Dame
No. 3 - West Virginia
No. 4 - USC
No. 5 - Miami
No. 6 - Texas
No. 7 - Florida
No. 8 - Auburn
No. 9 - Oklahoma
No. 10 - Louisville
No. 11 - California
No. 12 - LSU
No. 13 - Florida State
No. 14 - Iowa
No. 15 - Georgia
No. 16 - Michigan
No. 17 - Tennessee
No. 18 - TCU
No. 19 - Clemson
No. 20 - Penn State
No. 21 - Nebraska
No. 22 - Virginia Tech
No. 23 - Oregon
No. 24 - UTEP
No. 25 - Boise State

There shouldn't be any major suprises in that list. Most other national polls look somewhat similar, save for my additions of UTEP and Boise State. I think right now it boils down to who we think will play for the title and which teams could surprise.

You'll notice I rank Ohio State and Notre Dame one and two resectively. Well there it is kids, those are the two teams I believe will play for the BCS title on January 8th. It's a rematch of last year's Buckeye victory over the Irish in Tempe. This year the Buckeyes will do it again with the sick talent of QB Troy Smith, WR Ted Ginn Jr. and TB Antonio Pittman. Notre Dame will follow the leadership of Heisman candidate QB Brady Quinn and WR Jeff Samardzija. The Irish have the toughest schedule in football this year, so if they survive it, they'll be in line for the nachos.

I think the Rose Bowl will see USC and Iowa do battle. Cal is a good football team. They could challenge USC for the Pac-10 title, but they'll need to bounce back following their opening loss in Knoxville.

The Sugar Bowl will see West Virginia battle Oklahoma. I believe WVU could be undefeated at the end of the year, but their schedule is so weak it could leave them out of the title mix.

The Fiesta Bowl will be Texas vs. TCU. Texas should be no surprise, but TCU is loaded with a team coming off an 11-1 season. They're schedule could see them sitting undefeated as well setting up a Texas two-step battle in Tempe.

The Orange Bowl will see Florida take on in-state rival Miami. It's all about ratings and tickets in this one, where both local teams will bring alumni and fans out of the woodwork in South Florida.

Aside from TCU, there are a few other sneaky-sneaky teams out there waiting to pounce. Utah comes from the same conference as TCU and could run the table until they meet the Horned Frogs. But don't be surprised to see the Utes in the top 25 before the end of the year. Boise State is another team that can run the table with a light schedule and a major homefield advantage. Ever try playing football in Boise in November, snow driving in your face on a blue field. It haunts WAC players to this day. And finally, the Miners of UTEP could shock the world. UTEP won Conf. USA last year and is reported to be even better this year, which means they could finish 12-0 with their only challenge coming from Texas Tech. Former Washington State/Alabama coach is working his magic in El Paso and could be a force to watch out for this season.

So there you have it, my predictions. I invite everyone to comment with their thoughts and feel free to talk trash when a team like Nebraska runs the table and wins it all. It will just go to show you how dynamic college football can be. Enjoy!